Gold goes sky high while emissions hit the floor proving you really can have your bullion and green it too

Amid mounting global uncertainty, shifting trade policy, and resource nationalism, a clear signal has emerged from the Q1 2025 State of the Market webinar hosted by S&P Global Commodity Insights: gold has not only reclaimed its throne as a safe-haven asset but is doing so with a cleaner footprint.

In a rare instance of economic and environmental alignment, gold is defying historical tradeoffs between profitability and sustainability. With prices expected to average US$3,227 per ounce in 2025 and peak at US$3,344 in 2026, gold’s rally has been turbocharged by macroeconomic volatility and shifting investor sentiment. Yet behind the headlines, the emissions profile of primary gold mines is trending in the opposite direction — down.

According to the data presented, emissions intensity from primary gold production declined by 12 percent between 2021 and 2024. That trend is expected to continue, with a projected annual reduction of 3.3 percent through to 2029. This marks a milestone moment for an industry that has traditionally grappled with its environmental footprint.

Gold Reclaims Its Safe-Haven Status

Gold’s recent resurgence has been driven by a confluence of economic anxieties and geopolitical instability. Trade tensions between the US and China, inflationary pressures, and sluggish global growth have redirected capital into commodities perceived as low-risk.

“In April, gold briefly surged past US$3,000 per ounce, and that was no fluke,” said Kevin Murphy, director of research at S&P Global Commodity Insights, during the webinar. “We’ve seen a significant reallocation into physical ETFs across all major regions, with North America leading the charge due to equity market volatility and currency softness.”

Investor bullishness was also evident in futures positioning, with long positions maintaining strong momentum through Q1. Analysts revised their gold forecasts upward, with projections now showing the yellow metal sustaining a high average into 2026 before easing off as mine supply catches up and inflation expectations stabilise.

But the real headline lies not just in price — it’s in performance.

Underground Emissions Decline

The standout sustainability narrative lies in the marked decline in Scope 2 emissions at underground gold mines, driven largely by improvements in power sourcing. Underground operations, traditionally electricity-intensive due to ventilation and dewatering requirements, are reaping the benefits of cleaner grids and increased adoption of renewables.

“Underground mines have seen the most significant drops in emissions intensity, especially where they are connected to grids transitioning to greener energy sources,” said Gian Seblos, senior specialist in mine economics and emissions. “This is where we're seeing ESG goals align with cost efficiency.”

According to S&P Global data, off-grid operations — still largely dependent on diesel generators — are lagging. To meet future ESG targets, they’ll need to either electrify their fleets or shift to renewable-based microgrids. Both routes are technically viable, but the capital outlay remains a barrier for many producers.

Still, the broader trajectory is encouraging. Gold miners are increasingly recognising that emissions reductions can enhance not just environmental performance, but also long-term cost structures — particularly in an era of tightening carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) and investor scrutiny.

Why Emissions Matter More Now

The timing of this downward trend in emissions could not be more relevant. From 2026 onwards, the EU’s CBAM will expand to include embedded carbon emissions in imported raw materials, including metals. By 2034, full emissions coverage will apply — meaning any high-emitting producer selling into Europe will face additional cost burdens unless they clean up.

In short: lower emissions intensity is not just a sustainability badge — it’s a competitive advantage.

For gold, which is often refined and traded through a range of international markets, the ability to demonstrate a low-carbon production profile could soon become a price differentiator.

“The incentive is now baked in,” Seblos noted. “Cleaner gold production may command not just reputational benefit, but also tangible cost avoidance in future trade regimes.”

A Copper-Lined Future

While gold grabbed the spotlight, copper quietly made its case as the commodity to watch for energy transition investors. As China pours an unprecedented US$88 billion into expanding its power grid in 2025 — a record high — copper demand is set to remain resilient, despite broader macroeconomic headwinds.

“Copper is the only base metal expected to outperform on a year-over-year basis in 2025,” said Naditha Manubag, research analyst at S&P Global. “That’s being driven almost entirely by infrastructure-linked investment in China, particularly around solar and grid expansion.”

China’s newly installed solar capacity rose by 28 percent in 2024. In parallel, copper concentrate imports grew by 10 percent in Q1 2025, and refined copper cathode imports continued to increase month-on-month in March.

Supply-side constraints are adding to the bullish outlook. Disruptions in Chile due to weather and smelter outages, coupled with plunging treatment charges for concentrates, are tightening the refined market. This supply squeeze could offset some of the softening demand in Western economies.

Copper’s average LME price for 2025 is forecast at US$9,317 per tonne — down slightly year-on-year, but supported by longer-term fundamentals around electrification and decarbonisation.

Exploration’s Brownfield Bias

The webinar also flagged a persistent structural concern: the continued decline in grassroots exploration.

Only 20 to 25 percent of global exploration budgets are currently allocated to greenfields projects — a steep fall from around 60 percent in the 1990s. The shift toward brownfield exploration may offer near-term efficiency for producers, but poses long-term risks to the pipeline of new discoveries.

“Companies are under pressure to maximise returns and manage costs,” said Murphy. “That’s rational from a business standpoint, but industry-wide, it threatens future supply security.”

He added that deeper, lower-grade extensions of existing mines will likely drive up costs and emissions over time — reinforcing the case for reinvestment in frontier exploration.

Final Thoughts

As 2025 unfolds, the mining sector finds itself navigating a paradoxical world of protectionism and decarbonisation, where metals are at once more essential and more politically fraught than ever.

Gold’s performance this quarter stands as a compelling case study: a commodity that has not only regained financial lustre but also shown genuine progress in emissions efficiency. That convergence — high margins and lower footprint — is rare, and it may not last forever.

Whether other commodities can follow gold’s lead remains to be seen. But as this latest S&P Global webinar made clear, the new battleground for miners is not just beneath the surface — it’s in carbon, cost, and credibility.