Gold glitters, copper climbs and red tape still bites as Australia rides the next resource boom

If you thought commodities were dull, the RIU Sydney Resources Round-up 2025 would’ve shaken that notion like a jackhammer in Kalgoorlie.

Between Trump’s tariffs, gold’s glittering breakout, and a flurry of “green tape” tighter than a wombat in a wetsuit, one thing was clear: uncertainty is the new certainty. And strangely enough, that’s great news—if you’re in the right part of the resources game.

Here's what we learned when the data nerds, gold bulls, and market sages gathered to forecast the future of Australia’s resource sector.

Trump, Tariffs and the Tango of Global Chaos

First up, David Cassidy from Wilsons Advisory strode onto the stage armed with macroeconomic insights and a sharp sense of irony. Cassidy didn’t just review the markets—he dissected them like a geologist with a fresh core sample.

His diagnosis? The markets have been whiplashed by Trump’s tariff tantrum—specifically, the "Liberation Day" policy drop on April 2 that saw the S&P 500 nosedive 13 percent in four days, only to bounce back after Trump dialled down the drama.

According to Cassidy, investors are underestimating just how bumpy the next few months might be.

“Markets are looking a little bit complacent… I think we haven’t just had time yet for the bad data to come in.”

Still, he’s no doomsayer. He sees a global pivot toward stimulus: the US cutting rates, China pumping capital, and Europe doing… well, something useful for once. This synchronised monetary loosening, Cassidy argues, could make 2026 a surprisingly strong year for global growth.

As for commodities? Cassidy offered a scoreboard:

• Copper: The MVP. Supply constrained, energy-transition critical, and still undervalued.
• Gold: Safe as houses—if your house is made of bullion.
• Iron ore: Losing its shine. China’s housing slowdown and African supply loom large.
• Oil: Not dead, but probably hungover.
• LNG: Local wins expected, especially in the domestic market.

His most notable insight? Every commodity is now strategic in a bipolar world. Even the boring ones.

Gold’s Big Moment (and Why It’s Smarter Than the Fed)

Nicholas Frappell from ABC Refinery didn’t mince words. In fact, his talk was one-part market insight, one-part political roast, and all parts brilliant.

He called out the Trump administration’s tariff crusade as “economic fan fiction”—the kind of policy that belongs in an alt-history podcast, not the White House.

Gold, he explained, is booming not just because people are scared, but because people are smart.

“What stands out is not only the volatility in asset prices, but the uncertainty that arises when a government tears up prior treaties and trade agreements... That’s a big part of why gold is decoupled from the usual variables like real rates, crude prices, and the US dollar.”

His thesis: when governments rip up trade agreements, float policy on vibes, and risk stagflation for headlines, gold wins. Central banks are hoarding it. Chinese savers are chasing it. And the dollar, once strong on the back of "American exceptionalism", now looks like it needs a nap and a therapist.

Even more concerning? Shipping data shows a 30 percent drop in containers leaving China in April, suggesting a summer of empty shelves and rising prices in the U.S.

The biggest risk to equities, Frappell argued, is not inflation or interest rates—it’s uncertainty. And gold, the original chaos hedge, has returned to centre stage like it never left.

His parting shot: We’re not going back to normal. The toothpaste is out of the tube—and gold is what you buy when you can’t put it back in.

Drill Now, Talk Later: Why Exploration is in the Firing Line

Rob Murdoch of Austex Resource Opportunities brought the data—and the dry wit.

His opening gambit? It’s been a hell of a year for gold. And a worse one for lithium. If you’re still exploring for nickel, you probably need a drink.

Murdoch charted the mood swings of the ASX resource sector like a seasoned therapist. Gold stocks are up. Copper’s got a case of the disconnects—prices up, share prices down. Natural gas? Rocketing in price, but equity investors are looking the other way.

But it wasn’t all comedy. Murdoch delivered a serious warning about the triple threat of red, green, and black tape choking Australian projects.

“What’s happening is the exploration companies, when they raise money off shareholders, less and less of it’s going into the ground, in drilling—more and more of it is going on administration, as they try to work through this myriad of government irresponsibility.”

The stats were sobering:

• Q1 2025 saw the lowest capital raising in four years.
• Drilling announcements are down—again.
• Gold is still dominating expenditure, but approvals are taking longer, and costs are climbing.

Yet there’s hope. Murdoch flagged 45 WA-based gold explorers with defined resources but no production. Find a mill and a mining partner, and these companies could generate $40–50 million without diluting shareholders.

His final flourish was a comparison between U.S. and Australian political will. “Trump personally endorsed a stalled gold project in California. What do you think is the chance of our newly re-elected Prime Minister Albanese coming out and saying the McPhillamy's Gold Mine has been approved after years of stalled permitting?”

What to Take Away (Besides the Free Notepads)

So what does this all mean for investors, explorers, and the folks just trying to turn dirt into dollars?

1. Uncertainty is opportunity. The more chaotic the world becomes, the more people flock to what they can trust—gold, copper, and clarity.
2. Regulatory reform is no longer optional. Without changes to environmental approval processes, Australia risks being lapped by more agile jurisdictions.
3. Copper is king, but gold is royalty. Between the energy transition and the trust vacuum, both metals offer compelling long-term plays.
4. Capital is cautious. Projects need to be smarter, faster, and more efficient—because raising money isn’t getting easier anytime soon.

Final Word: Bring a Compass, Not a Crystal Ball

The 2025 RIU Sydney Round-up wasn’t about hot tips or overnight wins. It was about reading the room—and the room says volatility is here to stay.

But if there’s one thing Australia’s resource sector knows how to do, it’s thrive when others panic. Whether it’s drilling through red tape, riding gold’s breakout, or investing in the copper-laced backbone of the clean energy future, one thing is clear:

If you know where to look, chaos pays.